I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Trouble invited!

Kathmandu: President Girija Prasad Koirala's arrogance has put himself into a trouble that he never expected.

He is in a self-ruining path, which he preferred for himself. If he takes great leaps backward, his arrogance and political personality will receive a big jolt, which he, as per his habit, would like very much not to shatter abruptly. If he proceeds with his firm determination would mean that he was not a democrat in its truest sense of the term and that for him the established democratic norms and values mean little if his sentiments are hurt.

By all means, Koirala has committed a blunder of the Himalayan order by challenging the undisputed authority and the independence of the nation's apex court.

Look how he commented against the Supreme Court's ruling that went against him.

"The Supreme Court too has come under the influence of the King and that the decision made by the apex court was done at the behest of the monarch".

"I wish to suggest the Supreme Court that the entire institution should be shifted to the Royal Palace henceforth".

"I will not obey by the rulings of the court rather prefer to go to the prison straight".

This is what he said when the apex court offered its verdict last week stating that the CIAA has the authority to summon any public figure for interrogation.

A fuming Koirala made the above mentioned observations when he knew that he has no other options left other than to attend to the CIAA interrogation.

In the process, later, Koirala suddenly was told or himself realized that he had spoken what he should have not against the court's ruling.

An almost frightened Koirala, let's presume it, began making certain amendments in his former scathing remarks that he made against the court. He knew or he was told by his colleagues that his remarks might enrage the Court authorities to the extent that he could be penalized by the apex court on charges of the contempt of court.

Now look how he changes his statements.

"I mean no harm to the apex court".

"I have always taken the role of the judiciary in high esteem".

"In effect, what I told was that it appeared to me that in the absence of the parliament, the court might have come under the influence of the monarch".

"My statements were directed against the monarch but not the court".

This is how he later changed his version.

In the mean time, a few enthusiasts from the legal sector preferred to teach a lesson to Koirala for his rough remarks against the court and filed a writ petition at the court that Koirala's utterances against the court amounted to the contempt of the apex judicial body and thus he be penalized at the earliest.

The Supreme Court too came into immediate action for the judicial body could have thought that if such practices were left unchecked that might ultimately erode the credibility and the legitimacy both of the institution.

The climax: The Supreme Court has already ordered Koirala to present himself at the court within a week. SC orders also that Koirala's representative at the court will not be accepted. A stern order indeed.

Analysts now say the impending events will have charted the future course of president Koirala. If he abides by the orders of the court would mean that Koirala still has faith in a democracy. Failing to do so would mean he has the stamina still to fight a battle with the court as well which in the eyes of the lay men would mean that Koirala, a man who fought for the restoration of democracy all along his life, if attacked against his personal will, can go to any extent in even challenging the very basic tenets of a system that is democratic.

Hopefully, Koirala will abide by the orders of the court's orders. If he does so that would be fine and send messages across the country and abroad that Koirala made remarks while the ruling of the court that went against him mentally disturbed him.

The court too would do well to take care of the prestige and the popularity of a leader whose contributions to democratic system have no parallels. Indeed he is a towering political personality of the country.

In all likelihood Koirala will apologize when he attends to the court as per the orders served to him by the court. If it is so, that would work to satisfy the ego of the court.

Let's see how Koirala reacts to court's summoning him?

Futile exercise around Ratnapark Island

Kathmandu: Four frustrated political brains housed in different political groupings have rejuvenated their struggle against what they call "regression" which they say this time the movement thus waged against regression would come to a halt until the monarch corrected his past constitutional blunders.

The fact is that the four parties now gathered in the Ratnapark island would make a great joke of themselves simply because Nepal now has a government in Sigh Durbar that is participated in by four major political parties and by this time have already enjoyed the blessings and the required recognitions from the larger sections of the democratic establishments of the world including, for example, India, the United Kingdom and the lone super power, the United States of America.

The misguided brains under the influence of certain extra-territorial quarters presumably that have converged in Ratnapark must understand, analysts say, that things have tremendously changed and the changed political environment was not in their favor and that those who command respect in the comity of the nations all have appealed the men in the streets to either take part in the present cabinet or at least support the Deuba set and face the Maoists challenge united.

This amply hints that the international community would wish the men in the streets coming closer and make the government of the day more stronger which would certainly add up to the bargaining capabilities of the government at time of the talks with the rebels.

The men in the streets, for unknown reasons, appear determined in their presumption that if they stepped up their movement in the streets the king would be pressed hard to yield to their demands.

The King appears to be listening to their rhetoric but presumably has left the rest to be taken care of by his Government led by his prime minister, Deuba.

That the government this time would retaliate in a much more hard manner should the agitators at Ratnapark create panic and disorders in the society here and there becomes clear from the manner the Home Ministry Monday evening suggested the agitators not to cross the constitutional limits.

This means that the government is ready to face to the challenges posed to it by the agitators come what may.

Media sources say that the coalition partners of the movement against regression too appear divided on whether to support their commander, Koirala, in the case of the latter being dragged by the apex court or keep a comfortable distance with their commander until the case is finalized. It is natural that the coalition partners should now differ with Koirala who prefers to mix his private case with the movement against regression. His partners disagree.

To recall, Koirala's own party members have made it amply clear that since it was a case that is concerned with Koirala only thus it would be incorrect to consider the Koirala episode as a case that the party should fight for.

This particular NC decision appears to have made Koirala weaker in his stand. It is talked that Koirala's detractors in the party wish Koirala to face the charges on his own concluding that if charges made against Koirala by the CIAA got proved, he would automatically be sidelined from contesting next round of congress presidency.

Sources say that the court which has summoned Koirala to be present at the court personally would in all likelihood release Koirala taking into account the latter's immense contributions to the restoration of democracy and consolidating its ideals and values in the country after 1990.

The men in the street must understand that their commander is in the dock. Apart from this, the coalition partners differ on many counts, which significantly weakens the movement against regression. Add to this, the incoming Indian support explicitly in the pocket of Deuba and for that matter the King should also send messages to those who have dared to come to the streets again to fight regression.

Politics overshadows economic matters, say senior economists

Kathmandu: Speaking at a seminar, held on 19 September in Kirtipur, on "Current Economic Issues", Prof. Dr. Madan Kumar Dahal, Head of the Central Department of Economics (CEDECON) at Tribhuban University (TU) said from the chair that the seminar had been organized primarily with a view to bring faculty members, teaching economics in different campuses under Tribhuvan University, together for a dialogue on pertinent economic issues. During the seminar two papers were presented viz., on "Monitoring and Evaluation of Development Projects" by Dr. Sharad Kumar Sharma, Professor of Economics at TU and on "Foreign Aid, Exchange Rate and Extra Debt Burden" by Bhanu Raj Aryal and Pramod Pyara Shrestha, Forum for Economic Studies (FECOST).

When asked by The Telegraph Weekly to comment on the main essence of the papers, Prof. Madan Kumar Dahal expressed his views that monitoring and evaluation of development projects is a crucial determinant to expedite the quantum of foreign aid and spur economic growth and poverty alleviation. He categorically said that the performance of development projects is measured in terms of the size of government spending during the fiscal year, and not in terms of achieving physical targets. The traditional approach to measure performance of development projects is primarily confined excessively to inputs and not to outputs.

He further added that major weakness of monitoring and evaluation of development projects is that its ownership lies with the donors and not with the recipient countries, because the donors directly govern the projects. "The Office of Auditor General (OAG) has frequently revealed its apprehension that the amount received for Technical Assistance (TA) and bilateral assistance in most cases is not transparent. The formidable limitation is that National Planning Commission (NPC/Nepal) is a recommendatory body, which does not have constitutional status to enforce effectively appropriate monitoring and evaluation system for development projects executed by different Ministries and Departments of HMG/N. Answering to the queries of The Telegraph Weekly with respect to the paper on "Foreign Aid, Exchange Rate and the Extra Burden Prof. Dahal observed that foreign aid is an essential component to accelerate economic development in Nepal. However, the prime issue is how to improve productivity of foreign aid from both demand as well as supply sides. He said, "The aggregate outstanding foreign loan was estimated to be 50% of GDP as of FY 2002/03. The maturity period for external borrowing especially for the soft loan is relatively longer and therefore the size of burden will automatically increase in the long run, which further gives rise to increase in the burden of foreign loan attributing to frequent fluctuations (devaluation) in the exchange rate, known as "extra burden". The major implication of extra burden is that it creates huge pressure on international reserves by increasing debt-servicing ratio with respect to current expenditure resulting in widening fiscal and budget deficits. This might lead economy to decelerating path in the long run". Prof. Dahal is of the opinion that the exchange rate for Nepalese currency is stable with Indian currency for unknown reason, while the value of Nepalese currency is pegged with dollar vis-à-vis Indian currency.

At the inaugural session of the seminar, the Vice Chancellor of the T.U. Govinda Sharma suggested the teachers attending the seminar that such seminars contribute to enhance the teaching capabilities of the teachers that ultimately benefits the students.

Rector at the T.U. Prof. Mahendra Singh lamented that in Nepal politics overshadows the economy and that this trend have got to be changed or else the country will be pushed to an abyss.

Dr. Hom Nath Bhattarai, University Grant Commission, assured the department that the UGC will do all it can to encourage the scholars engaged in economic research activities.

Increasing Indian pressure on Maoists

Kathmandu: The Maoists leadership of late has been sending positive signals to the establishment that if conducive atmosphere for talks prevailed, they would certainly join the talks under the supervision of some recognized international guarantors.

Krishna Bahadur Mahara is on record to have made it abundantly clear to the government and the rest that they were ready for the talks.

No less surprising is the statement coming as it does from the rebels to have come when the Indian leadership in Delhi sent alarming signals to the Maoists that they would be dealt with heavy hands if they were nabbed in Indian territories but then yet would prefer talks for the issue to settle down amicably.

Maoists' high command is not happy with the fresh Indian assurances offered to Nepali prime minister Deuba during his recent trip to Delhi becomes clear from the fact that in the recent days Maoists have begun dubbing India as a country with expansionists designs.

Sources say that most of the top ranking Maoists leaders have already entered Nepal and have decided to continue their struggle right being inside their own territory.

Maoists top leadership is apparently in knowledge that if they harassed the Nepali establishment further could ensure Indian intervention in Nepal to the detriment of both: the Maoists and that of the nation's sovereignty and territorial integrity.

However, Prachanda thinks it differently.

He presumes that since America is bogged down in Iraq and that even if the US seduces India to take care of the Nepali issue, India for a variety of strategic and military reasons will apparently avoid its direct intervention in Nepal. Prachanda also believes that China, Nepal's northern neighbor, would retaliate with full force in case India intervened into Nepali affairs directly.

"China neither would support the Indian intervention nor would tolerate any such military intervention in Nepal", says Prachanda in his interview printed in one of the party's online magazine.

This means that in such an eventuality, according to Prachanda, China would act like a deterrent to India's possible interference in this Himalayan Kingdom. ( See Dristi weekly dated 21 September).

Yet another weekly affiliated to congress concludes that the Maoists have for the time being have shelved the idea of a constituent assembly and that they would now prefer to ensure comfortable relations with the monarch for the party can't afford to fight a battle concurrently with India and the United States of America.

"Party's temporary aim would be to go in for people oriented republic( Lok Tantraik gantantra) and the real objective would then be to install New people's republic, Naya jana badi gantantra.

The Maoists will have to bear more pressures from India in the days ahead for the Indian Home Minister , S.R.Patil, will have by now met nine chief ministers of various provinces to tackle their own insurgencies whose links have already been established with Nepali Maoists. The meeting was held in Hyderabad, India.

All in all, the Maoists have now reasons to be inside their own motherland. Analysts presume that theirs being inside Nepal will enhance the peace talks. Pleasingly enough, the Deuba government has already hinted that talks with the Maoists might commence before Dashain festivals.

Nepali royalty to visit India?

Kathmandu: Nepali intellectuals appear perplexed to note the visit of Nepali leaders to Delhi in quick succession and question as to what makes our leaders to go in for a Delhi pilgrimage?

After the high-flying leaders accomplished their "Darshan ceremony" in Delhi, it was nonelessthan Nepal's prime minister who went to Delhi and pocketed Indian promise in order to tame the Maoists rebels.

Now, reports say that India is already in a mood to greet the Nepali monarch in Delhi.

Question arises as to what gains the monarch would have from this visit which is materializing close on the heels of the visit of his own Prime Minister?

The fact is that the timing of the presumed visit by Nepal's monarch to Delhi is some what puzzling in the sense that is India planning to extend some more concrete support to this country as a gesture to Nepal?

If so, the Indian establishment could have offered the same to Deuba, which it did not apparently.

With due reverence to King Gyanendra, analysts appeal the King not to get swayed away by the Indian gestures while being in Delhi for India is a known country for doublespeak.

However, Nepali analysts have reasons to believe that King Gyanendra is a different political-diplomatic stuff not so easily be seduced by the Indian authorities and hence there is nothing to panic from this presumed visit of the monarch to Delhi.

Be that as it may, the visits being made by nepali authorities including leaders of various shades, prime ministers and even the King does hint that India has a role in Nepal whose neither the length nor the breadth is visible.

India has reasons to be happy for her self-acquired role in Nepali affairs, which, analysts say, is the result of Nepal's sheer weaknesses on all possible fronts in its dealings with the other side.

However, the government is yet to announce the monarch's supposed trip to India. The other side too is yet to respond regarding this important visit.

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