Even delayed by few days or weeks, this time, the dialogue should be a meaningful one

Dr. Karna Bahadur Thapa Security Analyst, NEPAL

Dr.Karna Bahadur Thapa, a Major of the Royal Nepalese Army, took premature retirement in 1998 to obtain a doctoral degree.

Dr. Thapa is currently engaged in several jobs that are related with his degree.

TGQ1: Mr. Thapa, you as a security expert, how have you assessed the present political disorder in the country? What loopholes, if any, you see in the handling of the security situation that could have allowed the insurgents to exploit from such a situation in their favor?

Dr. Thapa: From the security viewpoint, political dimension is the central and key element of national security. In Nepal, the single agenda on how to overthrow the Panchayat system was not enough for the transformation of Nepalese society in the changing national and global security environment. What next was more important than what we gained in 1990?

Gaining of the electoral victories which elevates one to political power is a healthy practice in every democracy. Nepalese people have lent their support to the political parties to work comfortably in a democratic environment. Situations took an abrupt U turn, as the actors did not go by the people’s mandate. Encouraged egotism, evoking grim images of hierarchy, expecting their desirability, as the viability of society could not reconcile with the requirements of the rule of law and with the imperatives of national security. This is how its own custodians stabbed a nascent democracy in the back. Within this environment, Maoist insurgency emerge as a "threat barometer" in the country.

TGQ2: The popular political opinion that, the ten years of conflict has exposed the RNA’s inability to counter the Maoists insurgency, do you subscribe to this view or see the RNA being equally capable of countering the Maoists in a befitting manner? If so then what has stopped the Army in doing so and restoring peace?

Dr. Thapa: To my knowledge, the Royal Nepalese Army (RNA) was mobilized and explicitly mandated when Bhagwati Prasad Gulma, an independent company located in Dang, came under a vehement attack on November 23, 2001.

In insurgencies and guerilla movements, even military victory does not necessarily end the overall conflict. Military failure, however, in the struggle against guerillas is conducive to a guerilla victory.

It is not the army to assess the strategic breadth and depth between insurgents and security force. The reality cannot be gauzed on the death toll made by the war. I subscribe to your question that prevailing intimate circle between the RNA and society have been badly distorted by the existing philosophy of "security community" after the "state of emergency". There are many gray areas that have been created by the Maoists in the countryside.

RNA, as a watchdog for national safety and security, the troops assigned in the field are operating in a "no choice" situation and under pressures. The tradition of "conservative innovation" cannot be applied to own fellow citizens like a conventional battle.

RNA has not been portrayed by some of the political forces as "blood and treasure" of Nepalese society. Political indecision, no consensus and uncertainty among the political parties has favored the insurgents. To a large measure, the effectiveness of RNA directly correlates with the affinity of political force and the society they are mandated to protect. Our present experience very much tends to confirm this rule of thumb.

Furthermore, the situation is aggravated by the extremists from various quarters. They are operating to destroy this country under the camouflage of mass media, human rights and social services. Their activities have helped to erode national interest and stability. This has weakened national unity and power. Neither the Maoists in the long run nor the state has been benefited by the metropolitan dollar hunters. This leverage for conducting several detrimental activities became possible for them under the constitution of 1990 in the one hand and the lack of censorship at the governmental level on the other.

Before rating the RNA, we should understand two principles involved for the army mandated in a counter insurgency operation (1) the absolutist principle which suggests that what one is allowed to do to people and (2) the utilitarian principle suggests that what merely happens to them as a result of what one does. But, a common principle for the security force and insurgents is that: "noncombatants are granted immunity at all times from an attack directed at them". Number of death toll is not a decisive factor in a counter insurgency operation.

TGQ3: In the context that the prospect of the UN mediation is talked to be in the offing to avoid "unsolicited intervention" , what do you think Mr. Thapa the country or set of country’s that would intervene in the Nepali affairs and under what pretext?

Dr. Thapa: Generally, there are model of interventions: (1) Military intervention (2) Invited intervention and (3) humanitarian Intervention. Under any pretext, I do not believe that these models can be applied in Nepal’s case. The military intervention is not possible for two reasons; until the US goodwill and support is received and there are many untested Pravakarans are born in Nepal in times of need. The second, I do not see any party that invites for foreign interventions. The third, if we take an example from Kosovo, and then who is ready to become a Milosevic? Only these are not sufficient justifications to your question. We need to assess our situation from various perspectives.

We have to understand the state’s as well as Maoist’s limits very clearly. We also need to perceive and analyze some situations from Maoist point of view, for example in India’s case:

Firstly, the handing over of Suresh Ale Magar and Matrika Yadav is a signal that India is ready to cooperate with Nepal in settling the Maoist insurgency.

Secondly, the arrest of Mohan Baiddhya in India is a signal to Maoist high command to think seriously on it.

Thirdly, the arrest of some Maoist cadres in Patna, India, and inviting Nepalese security officials to come to India for further investigation is a signal to international community that issues arising within Nepal and India are bilateral issues.

In such a complex situation, Government-Maoist needs adequate homework to create a conducive environment for a negotiated settlement of the conflict.

TGQ4: The dismal failure of three consecutive governments in executing King’s instructions in restoring peace, and hold elections, do you see any possibility of the monarch jumping into the political scene himself and proceed to materialize his own cherished goals?

Dr. Thapa: As I mentioned earlier, politics is the central dimension of managing a state including security or conflict. Constitutional deadlock was created by political conflict within the Nepalese congress that forced His Majesty to take a new step under the article 127 of constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal 1990. In other words, we can understand it as a part of rajdharma or royal obligation. How His Majesty could remain as a silent observer during such a difficult situation?.

The commitments of His Majesty during the visit in five development regions on the state of affairs should be understood in a positive way. Similarly, reinstatement of Premier Deuba is another affirmative step taken by His Majesty. There is no alternate to a political consensus to resolve the existing dilemma in the country. One should also not forget that the nation can not be hostage of this uncertainty very long. It will find its course in its own way.

Since the time of nation building, monarchy is the only institution that serves as glue for unity within the diversity of Nepalese society. We can confirm them from the pages of Veda, Manusmriti or Chanakyaniti. Furthermore, Plato and Machiavelli have given clear instructions about the philosophy of Monarch.

The nature of our society has been coexisted between the constitution and institution. Our political leaders should be able to harness a 235 years experience of the institution of monarchy for the prosperity of the nation and Nepalese society. We are a small country living in a difficult geopolitical condition. We have to understand our limits and our vision and thoughts should be guided by our glorious past. A multi linguistic and multi ethnic society like Nepal, everyone has a role to play for the best interest of the nation and people.

TGQ5: The public plead of immediate talks with the Maoists is being ignored. What factors underneath apparently causing this delay?

Dr. Thapa: First of all, the peace effort comes after a great suffering. We should be cautious by ourselves rather than pointing towards the invisible player. Even delayed by few days or weeks, this time, the dialogue should be a meaningful one. If invisible factors are strongly influential, we should extricate Maoist leaders from the clutches of the invisible forces’ iron hand. We should also provide necessary space for the Maoists for dialogue. Maintenance of human relationship is equally important in future dialogue. Promises from both sides should be spelled out clearly one after the other.

Furthermore, Peace process between the government and Maoist should not depend only on the historical issues but present perception and ground reality should be applied. Only a few people will take part in the process but somehow people’s ownership should be represented on both sides. Both parties should not hesitate to discuss even on the untested political issues. Internal and external disruption might be present but to have a breakthrough from the problem is knowledge of the participants with a clean intention.

There is a big gulf within the few kilometers of ring road in Kathmandu valley for our main political parties to find a consensus to resolve the Maoist insurgency. At the same time our leaders have spent much time and energy flying to New Delhi to learn a conflict management mantra. This subordinated mentality has stood as a political obstacle in spite of the people’s sincere appeal for immediate talks with the Maoists.

Now the time has come for a meaningful dialogue. We have to learn lessons from Northern Ireland and South Africa. As mentioned earlier, a nation cannot remain very long time in such a hostage situation. The gray areas drawn at the cost of some 10,000 Nepalese have to be converted into a peaceful and safe areas for all of us.(reproduced)

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