I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Deuba must decide on UML

Kathmandu: The Nepali Congress has never fought and won elections in the country without residing over the electoral government. In this light the Girija Koirala stance that parliament be restored is easily interpreted. When parliament is restored the Girija Congress can muster its ranks also from the disgruntled Deuba party, align itself with the UML and claim its stakes to government. This is precisely why Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba dissolved the parliament pre-empting moves by Girija Koirala to muster UML alignments and seek desertions from Deuba ranks on the pretext of opposing Deuba's attempt to prolong the emergency. This is precisely why also Girija Koirala insists on the revival of the dissolved parliament.

The UML role, however, in the Congress attempt to grab electoral government must necessarily be viewed as that in competition. Firstly, the UML is a much younger party. In this sense, its actions are prompted by the need to take advantage of the prevailing situation in competition with the Congress. No less than Girija Koirala is accused by the "democrats" themselves for strengthening the communist movement in Nepal by partnering the "Left" in the "movement for the restoration of democracy" in 1990. Girija is accused of deviating from the B.P path on account of the fact that B.P refused such partnership consistently in order not to give the left the advantage of opportunism that the UML readily demonstrates today. It is this opportunism of the UML that is under scrutiny currently in the background of the mounting crisis of government.

The UML is in the Deuba government charged with the task of building an environment suiting elections. Elections are the only constitutional recourse for the restoration of the parliament. The UML partnered the Deuba government only after Girija Koirala refused to publicly back Madhav Nepal to the post of Prime Minister ship of such a government when the King openly asked that contenders to government come forth publicly. This was when the UML was partnering the Girija Congress on the streets openly alleging that the appointments of Prime Ministers L.B. Chand nd S.B. Thapa were "regressive" under article 127. The UML currently claims that their partnership with Deuba in government is a "partial correction".

Having helped engineered a split in the Congress and having secured its place in government the UML actions currently display the same opportunism that has placed it in power and helped enhance its position to topple the Deuba government. Contradictory actions of the UML may be thus explained. Regardless, as holders of key government portfolios in these transient days the UML has successfully nurtured its sagging cadre numbers that currently flock the urban areas displaced by the Maoists challenge. The UML appears poised from position of strength now to partner a weakening Girija Congress to take its pound of flesh.

Indeed, Girija Koirala openly woos the UML participation in its street program hoping that such a partnership will turn the tables on Deuba and facilitate disgruntled Deuba to join his congress. "Barkis is willing" as the adage goes. The Deuba central committee meet more than reflected this trend.

And so the onus is now on Deuba. His UML ministers continue to function as the opposition in cabinet. The UML leadership encourages this. Be it in the appointment of the Rastra Bank Governor or in the resignation of a key peace committee UML member, be it in the opposition to the Raj Parishad's constitutional meeting or on the key question of holding elections, the UML has set a double standard of public convenience. And now it has timed the thorny issue of energy price hikes well. This comes at a time that the Maoists have refused the Deuba deadline for talks and when the UML is saying that elections can't be held prior to the talks. The message to Deuba is clear.

Time ticking:
Deuba's fate hangs in balance

Kathmandu: Time is running out much to the discomfiture of Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and his colleagues in government who prefer going to the elections should the Maoists cross the January 13 deadline offer for talks.

By time this newspaper reaches to the readers, a complete day would have been left with the government to decide on how to proceed with the country's politics if the Maoists do not respond to the government's call for talks within January 13, that is tomorrow.

The fact is that neither Deuba can declare polls as announced earlier nor he can wait the Maoists to come to the talks sine die. The chances of his being sacked once more are very high. Expectedly, Deuba should have become pretty nervous. Poor Deuba!

The Maoists, to whom the call has been made by the lame-duck government, have so far not even provided slightest hint that they favor talks or wish to honor to Deuba's requests.

The fact is that Maoists straight no to talks does speak so many things at a time.

Firstly, the Maoists continue to consider this government as an establishment that enjoyed no authority or whatsoever so far it were concerned with the commanding the activities of the Royal Nepal Army.

Secondly, the Maoists still consider that this government, even if it claimed the other way, can't take decisions at time of the talks when it came to the to the talks of the demand for a constituent assembly or for that matter having a round table conference and an interim arrangement as demanded by the other camp.

Thirdly, the Maoists conclude that since this government would not bring in the good offices neither of the UN nor of some internationally recognized mediators or facilitators for a variety of political reasons.

To recall, the Maoists of late have not been insisting on the UN involvement at time of the talks, however, have hinted that they would be more than willing to attend to the talks provided some recognized and reputed international institution were invited to the scene at time of the talks. In saying so perhaps the Maoists fear that if by chance they came to the talks and certain points were agreed upon between the two, the government might retreat out rightly should some invisible forces forced the establishment to do so. This possibility perhaps has been impelling the rebels to go in for a recognized mediator which is very much understandable.

Thirdly, the Maoists conclude that since the Nepali army remains unconditionally loyal and honest to the King and thus there was no point in talking to Tom, Dick and Harry who neither can convince the military nor possess the capability to do so.

This means that the loyalty of the army towards the King could be a strong point which discourages the Maoists to come to the talks with a government that they presume was more close to the palace than even the palace authorities.

As if these allegations were not enough, a section of Deuba's own party men subscribe to the view that the Royal palace becomes stronger as and when Deuba is the prime minister.

Could be a mere conjecture indeed but the allegations are there. Deuba is the victim of these allegations fortunately or unfortunately.

It is not for nothing perhaps as to why the Maoists at times speak out their mind hinting that they would be willing to talks straight to the King in order to get their demands agreed upon. In saying so perhaps they indicate that their selection of the King for talks is right for it is the King who can only satisfy their demands. Its corollary would be to think that the Maoists understand better that the political concessions, which they were demanding, could only materialize if the King willingly yields some of the powers which the rebels would wish to get from him.

The fact is also that any team acting on behalf of the government at time of the talks can go up to a desired limit and can't cross the threshold when it came to the curtailment of the King's powers. In effect the team entrusted to talk to the Maoists would have a limit over which political demands could be met with and which to be rejected. Under these circumstantial limitations attached with the existing constitutional authority of the monarch, the team could do little to satisfy the radical demands of the Maoists.

It should be these factors which should have guided the Maoists of late that they would prefer to talk to the King or his close aide.

The constitutional provisions, however, do not allow the monarch to come to the talks with the Maoists. Neither he would do so nor he could be pressed for that, say constitutional experts.

Nevertheless, at best what the monarch can do is to send signals to the other camp that well these were some points wherein he could agree with the other side in the name of the nation.

But then the million-dollar question is that will the King agree to hand over his exclusive powers under the pressure of the Maoists?

The Maoists would not settle for less. The King is not going to yield to the Maoists pressures. The fate of the nation thus appears to continue in limbo for some more time to come.

Reports have it that the Deuba government is devising some fresh mechanisms on how to bring the rebels to talks and is expected any time from now to announce its fresh initiatives.

High placed sources say that the imbroglio would continue until the King is back from his India trip, which is materializing soon.

Should this mean that the key to the Nepal's Maoists issue laid in the Indian hands? Things associated with this question would come to picture after King's Delhi visit.

Nevertheless, the arrival next week of Samuel Tamrat, the UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's special envoy here is significant.

New Delhi's talking points!

Kathmandu: New Delhi has in an indirect manner hinted the Nepali monarch that when the latter is in Delhi, the Indian establishment would wish to draw the attention of the Nepal King to listen to its three point agenda and act accordingly.

The agenda are namely; tangible step towards strengthening multi-party democracy; striking down any retrograde step to further destabilize the political parties in Nepal and directions to the Royal Nepal Army to engage the Maoists and stabilize the situation.

It is up to the analysts to take these three Delhi agenda in any form: it could be an instruction to the King or could be an appeal. Whatever it is, the agenda have come to the open which deserve deep attention.

Firstly, the first agenda pushed by New Delhi does implies that the King should act in favor of strengthening the multi-party system as if the King had through his past acts had weakened the system now in place. The Indian side however does not speak as to what "tangible" steps should the King take in order to strengthen the system. Hopefully, New Delhi would hint the King on how to proceed on this matter when the latter is in Delhi next week.

The second agenda does speak of "striking down" and retrograde step to further destabilize the political parties. Delhi however, has not hinted as to which forces on earth have destabilized the Nepali political parties. The Delhi agenda also remains silent over the fact that the political parties in Nepal were in a destabilized position for their own faults and that no one other than the party men have contributed to this destabilized position. New Delhi should have understood the fact that it is not due to the fault of the King nor those of the people that the parties stand here totally destabilized and battered.

This very particular New Delhi agenda should have been sent for the consumption of the political parties here but not to the monarch.

The third agenda coming from Delhi is related with the Nepali army wherein it expects that the King directed the army men to stabilize the situation in the country by "engaging" the Maoists.

New Delhi knows that the army is already out of the barracks and fighting with the rebels in order to bring normalcy in the country. New Delhi also knows that the government of the day has been appealing the other side to come to the talks in order to stabilize the situation disturbed by the conflict.

The Delhi agenda does not hint that similar appeals it has made to the other side so that peace is restored in the Himalayan Kingdom, as New Delhi presumably would wish to see.

Apart from the three point agenda, some more hints have come; for example, New Delhi does not mince words that it would wish the dissolved parliament receiving a new lease of life. However, the mechanism is different as expected by the champions of the restoration of the parliament back in the country.

New Delhi prefers a panel to be constituted by the King to be led by a political animal (of Delhi's choice?) who would later chart a new mechanism on how to proceed with the restoration of the now dissolved parliament.

Thanks that New Delhi is not pressing the monarch to go unconstitutional on matters of restoring the House as demanded by Girija Prasad Koirala.

Koirala has reasons to be happy that India finally has endorsed his view though in a different manner.

India again expresses its dissatisfaction indirectly over the manner presumably the Nepali army is dealing with the insurgents in the jungles. In more ways than one, India hints that the Nepali army should kill their own Maoists brethren come what may. In saying so, India implies that unless the Nepali army came heavily down against the Maoists, the rebels would not come to the table. India indicates that army should build pressure on the Maoists so that the other side is compelled to come to the talks,

The Indian trick lies here. That India prefers a weakened Nepal, both at the popular level and at the army level, wherein one Nepali is hell bent on killing the other Nepali becomes pretty clear from Indian suggestion to the army to go in for massive hunt until the rebels yield.

Now it remains to be seen as to how the King while in Delhi responds to the Indian agenda.

Analysts here appeal the King not to get carried away by Indian gestures, which in lieu wishes to see a weakened Nepal on a permanent basis.

Analysts hope that king Gyanendra would do well if he sought Indian assistance in pressing the rebels to join the talks. The rest Nepalese will manage themselves. It would be for the Nepalese by the Nepalese. "This should be the true spirit", says one political scientist associated with the T.U, Kirtipur.

UML double speak

Kathmandu: The UML is in government.

It is concurrently in opposition.

The party led by feudal communists create problems and give the impression that it is they who could only manage the medical treatments for the problems they created themselves for a variety of political reasons.

The party is in the High level peace committee and instead of talking of the prevalence of positive peace prefers to boycott the committee for unknown reasons.

The fact is that it is a party of power mongers who prefer to be in government to nourish its frustrated cadres and extract political, and financial gains to the party by pushing their own partisan agenda.

The part of the communists at times threaten the prime minister that they would quit participation in government should their wishes were not met with by the cabinet chief.

Look at how the UML did with the name of Dr. Yubraj Khatiwada for the post of the next Rastra bank governor. The party in the process made it abundantly clear that Dr. Khatiwada was their party man and that if he were not selected for the NRB Governor post, it would bring down heaven to earth.

The party talks of peace but so far has done little for the restoration of peace other than forwarding threat loaded statements to the prime minister even alleging him of being not interested in peace talks.

The fact is that the HPC has UML members as well. When their presence at the HPC was there, what force on earth barred the party from pressing the prime minister and his colleagues for talks with the Maoists?

The reality is that the UML does not want the Maoists to come to the talks. Firstly, the moment the Maoists come to the talks, the UML will have little say in the country's politics. Secondly, if the talks succeeded, the UML will be at a loss for at time of the elections, the UML cadres will join the ranks of the new force that is the Maoists. This means that if the Maoists joined the mainstream politics, it would be the Maoists who would influence the present day UML voters back in the villages and districts.

Thirdly, if the Maoists agree to a ceasefire for the time being, it would not be the UML cadres who will visit the villages to seek people's support but it would be the cadres of the rebellion side who would be there. And they were there very much in absence of cadres of any other political parties including those of the UML.

The party talks of serving the poor. The fact is that the party supposedly of the poor has increased the prices of K-oil three times in series well within five months of its tenure in government caring little. The party so far has not revealed as to what amount its ministers and the party bagged from such a Himalayan price hike brought into effect all of a sudden?

The party's ministers hike the price of the sugar and petro-products. To exhibit that the party was sincere towards the poor people's issues, the party tells its cadres to come to the streets to stage demonstrations against such unwarranted price hikes.

This double standard of the highest order. Kudos to the UML. Keep it up.

En Bref:

Rawal resigns

Kathmandu: A UML leader and member of the High-Level Peace sub-committee, Bhim Rawal, resigned from his post citing policy differences within the committee last week.

Rawal, talking to a media in Kathmandu said that, as he had serious differences with the process of restoring peace and its style of functioning in the High Level Peace Committee (HLPC) he decided to resign.

Maoist valley commanders arrested

Kathmandu: Unconfirmed reports say security forces have taken into custody Aditya, chief of Kathmandu special district unit of the CPN (Maoist), last week.

According to reports, security personnel took into custody Aditya, and his colleague, Bimal, from Bhaktapur three days ago. CPN (Maoist) is yet to confirm the incident.

In the meantime, one leading Nepali language daily reported that Rs 800,000 was also recovered from Aditya when he was arrested. Maoist sources have said Aditya was "out of contact" since Thursday last week. Unconfirmed reports last week also indicated that all three commanders from three cities in the valley have been arrested.

Dalits & upper caste clash

Katmandu: At least a dozen people, mostly journalists, were injured in a clash between ‘dalit’ activists and ‘upper-caste’ people when the latter tried to bar ‘dalits’ from entering a Hindu temple in south eastern Saptari district on Monday. 

Reports said the scuffle erupted when the ‘upper-caste’ people used force on the ‘dalits’ entering the Devibar temple to perform a collective puja at Kanakpur of Madhupatti VDC in the district.

Local journalists who led the ‘dalits’ were injured in the scuffle, according to reports.

Three ‘Maoist aides’ held in India

Kathmandu: Three Nepalis suspected of aiding Maoist insurgents have been arrested in Pithauragarh of the Indian state of Uttaranchal, reports last week said.

Media reports said Prem Singh Bohara, Hari Singh and Man Bahadur Bohara who were running hotels at Gandhinagar area of Pithauragarh were arrested on Saturday. Reports quoting police officials said the three men would be extradited to Nepal within a few days after investigation.

However, the reports gave no details regarding their link with the Maoists who have allegedly been using parts of Uttaranchal as hideouts.

Journalist Parajuli released

Kathmandu: Sitaram Parajuli, executive editor of ‘Shram’ weekly newspaper, has been released by security forces in Kathmandu Sunday after 13-day long detention.

Parajuli was ‘abducted’ by plain-clothed security personnel from New Baneswore area on December 28, blind-folded and taken to an unknown location. Federation of Nepalese Journalists (FNJ), press freedom organisations from within the country and abroad, and his family members appealed the government to make public his whereabouts and release him immediately.

Maoists lift ban

Kathmandu: The Maoists have lifted the indefinite ban on vehicular movement along the highways and other interior parts of the Bara, Parsa and Rautahat districts on Monday morning.

Issuing a joint statement on Monday morning, Maoist secretary of Bara and Parsa districts, Prakash, and people’s government chief of Rautahat, Dileswor Yadav, lifted the indefinite ban on vehicular movement in the area, according to reports. The Maoists have cited journalists’ and rights activists’ requests behind the withdrawal of the strike.

Transportation has resumed along the Mahendra highway after the withdrawal of the strike, according to reports.

Fuel price hike

Kathmandu: In what is considerd to the most unpopular moves the government hiked prices of petroleum products based on the recommendation of an advisory committee under National Planning Commission last week.

This is the third time the Deuba government has increased the fuel prices in five months. 

The price of per litre of petrol has been fixed at Rs.62 from 56, diesel Rs.41 from 35 and Liquified Petroleum Gas at Rs.850 from 750 per cylinder. Subsidized kerosene will be sold at Rs.30 per litre, while the regular price will be Rs.36, up from Rs 28. The price of aviation fuel has been fixed at Rs.48 per litre. The new price setup will come into effect from today, officials said. 

Students affiliated to opposition political parties took to streets in Kathmandu as soon as the government announced a significant hike in the prices of petroleum products Monday afternoon.

AIDS can genetically be cured

Kathmandu: A single change in a human gene may hold the key to preventing people living with HIV from progressing to full-blown AIDS, researchers said on Monday. They found a crucial difference between a gene in humans and one in rhesus monkeys that block infection of the virus in the animals a finding that offers new insights into the origins of AIDS and gene therapy. Had the gene been the same in humans, scientists at the National Institute of Medical Research in London believe, there may not have been the AIDS epidemic that now affects 40 million people worldwide.

(Compiled from various sources)

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