I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Expectant mood for fresh option

Kathmandu: The Kingdom is finally bearing the direct costs of conflict and negligence. The people can do little else but groan under the unavoidable economic measures removing subsidies and enlarging security coffers. The fact is that the empty layman's purse has little in it for the additional expenses. The political parties must cash in upon this to galvanize their sagging street presence and the economic component of the agitation is likely to be the more effective spearhead. Not surprisingly, the UML must also jump in the fray and their presence in the street begins a new flirtation at populism with potential.

Of course, the political component of this potential lies in the new UML move to seek the possibility of the restoration of the parliament with Deuba's Prime Ministerial seat ensured. Only naturally Girija Koirala has grasped this thread expressing possibilities of such an accord. The underlying intent of course is ever present. A restored parliament can help engineer a slide of Deuba members towards the mother Nepali Congress and procure for Girija a fresh majority to claim government.

Only naturally Deuba lies firm against the UML move and sees elections as the only possibility. Strangely neither the Nepali Congress nor the UML nor even intelligentsia advocates of restoration of parliament within and outside the country would want to pay heed to the first public pronouncement of the newly appointed Supreme Court Chief Justice who has negated this possibility at the very outset.

The logical constitutional solution remains what the King since the past two years has been striving for – a national government composed of political parties represented in the dissolved parliament and outside political forces that can decisively patch up for the conduct of the overdue national elections which done can restore parliament constitutionally.

This seemingly easy Royal proposition has proven a chimera much before the use of article 127 because of the primary need of political organizations to use government office for elections. Participation in an election government has been a race that has distorted the election process in Nepal contributing to the constitutional crisis itself.

This then, demands a realization that distortion in the election process be convincingly removed and a government beset with the purpose of assuring all that elections without these distortions will take place regardless they participate or not.

Of course, denied the advantage of their participation, the major political organizations that have had their grassroots usurped by the Maoists will clamor foul. It is unlikely that the population will chose the very candidates that deserted them after having created the mess at the bottom. This explains the reluctance of the UML to leave government.

Whatever, the race for election government continues. Deuba's waning popularity and the UML double speak combined with Koirala's classic adamance makes a gloomy picture for the existing status quo. A new option must be floated and this explains the mood of expectancy.

Deuba: A sinking horse

Kathmandu: The country should go to the polls?

The country has to go to the polls.

The country can't afford to go to the polls under the existing fluid situations.

The country of late is bogged down in these few expressions emanating from various political and non-political quarters.

Polls without bringing the Maoists to table will be definitely a difficult proposition indeed. However, the country can't afford avoiding elections to the parliament for an indefinite period.

The fact is also that the government of the day has to abide by the instructions provided it by the King at time of the formation of this government.

Should the government go in for elections only to keep the King's wishes or should the King be appealed for granting some more grace period in order to provide the Maoists yet another chance to come to the negotiating table?

Both the propositions appear valid in the prevailing circumstances.

But then can a scared Sher Bahadur Deuba dare to request the King for yet another grace period of the sort of what he had made some two years ago and invited a summary dismissal of his government?

Perhaps a frightened Deuba would not dare to seek such a grace period but instead would prefer to throw the country to the hustings come what may.

Deuba would prefer the second option in order to avoid being once again dubbed as incompetent one.

It is this fear psychosis that is prompting Sher Bahadur Deuba to gear up for the polls caring little that what would happen to the credibility and the legitimacy of the poll results if it were conducted even in several phases and boycotted by major contending political parties?

In an indirect manner, the parties in the streets have already indicated that they will not participate in the polls and would challenge the very credibility of the poll results if the polls were conducted against their will.

Instead of going to the polls, the parties in the streets have suggested Deuba and his government to restore the now dissolved parliament.

Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba remains undeterred to such propositions and says that parliament restoration was impossible.

Surprisingly, the just appointed Chief Justice of the Supreme Court, Justice Hari Prasad Sharma, in no uncertain terms too has hinted that he does not favor the restoration of the parliament and that the courts be not made to intervene in exclusive political matters.

This statement more or less indicates that during the tenure of Justice Sharma, the question of the restoration of the parliament will be shelved. Justice Sharma's tenure at the nation's apex court is due to expire this July-August.

Close analyses at these new developments reveal that Deuba would not go in for the restoration of the parliament. The Chief Justice is more or less against the parliament revival. The King would apparently not challenge the previous verdict of the Supreme Court. This means that Koirala's ambition of the revival of the parliament would not materialize.

Under these prevailing circumstances, the UML's sudden desire to work in favor for the restoration of the parliament is not only intriguing but scaring as well.

How come a party that till the other day advocated against the restoration of the parliament could now initiate clandestine moves to convince fellow colleagues for the house revival?

Question arises as to whether this new idea is exclusively a UML brain or the party of the communist has begun acting on lines that are foreign?

It could be a mere conjecture indeed but one has to admit that UML leader Madhav Nepal has begun talking in favor of parliament restoration only after New Delhi expressed her inner intent for the house revival as expressed by and Indian Daily last week which hinted that when the Nepal King will be in Delhi, India would tell the King to look into this agenda.

Interestingly, New Delhi's new agenda matches with Koirala and freshly with Madhav Nepal's. Is it a mere coincidence or ………………….

Be that as it may, Deuba's penchant to go in for the elections could prove to be an adventure that is fraught with dangers.

The fact is that the Maoists have already declared that if elections were declared, the party would do every thing to disturb the elections tooth and nail.

This means Deuba has so many enemies, seen and unseen, if he dares to go in for the hustings. The parties in the streets have opposed the elections. The Maoists are up against the elections. More so Deuba's coalition partner, the communists, too appear against the elections.

Under these disturbing situations question arises how Deuba could conduct the polls even if he is backed by the nation's army wholeheartedly?

It is time that Deuba thought of inviting the Maoists once again. Analysts see no other better option than this.

The King too should initiate consultations with potential leaders, cabinet members and members of the security agencies and decide on whether to allow a grace period to Deuba or sack him once again.

Albeit, Deuba is a sinking horse. His detractors neither appreciate him nor the King has reasons to be thankful for his past dismal performances that have hit the poor hard.

UML favors Koirala; UML supports Deuba

Kathmandu: The leader of the UML, Madhav Kumar Nepal, is everywhere and with every one.

He is with the Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. He is concurrently with Girija Prasad Koirala.

He favored the price hike in the Petroleum products. He opposed such a price hike and managed his student wing to stage demonstrations against the price hike.

The UML was against the increment in the funding of the Army. The party's deputy prime minister has done just the contrary to what it advocated in the not so distant past. In doing so the party has amply hinted the Army that it can even increase the strength of its personnel. This goes apparently against India's internal desire.

The communist leader is a charismatic political personality indeed.

Madhav Nepal is supposed to have assured NC President Girija Prasad Koirala that if he ensured Deuba's Prime Ministership after the restoration of the House, he would convince Deuba to appeal the King for the revival of the now dissolved parliament.

Koirala had reasons to be happy that better late than never Madhav Nepal saw some points in his house revival theory. However, Koirala is not that fool to get carried away by Madhav Nepal's mysterious change of stance. That Koirala remains suspect of Mr. Nepal's recent moves favoring restoration of the parliament got reflected from Koirala's utterances the other day he made in Ithari, a small town close to Biratnagar, wherein he stated that Madhav Nepal's fresh overtures were fraudulent moves and thus warranted no attention.

Madhav Nepal and a few of his colleagues reiterate that the party now should go in for the restoration of the parliament and this is what the party's central committee too has endorsed this idea.

However, contrary to what Madhav Nepal expresses at time of lectures, he clandestinely is supporting Sher Bahadur Deuba's determination to go to the polls after the Maoists said a straight no to his offer for talks with the government.

Newspaper reports reveal that at a Monday evening high level meeting of the prominent leaders of the present day coalition partners at the Prime Minister's official residence, Madhav Nepal did not utter a single word against the idea of going to the elections.

The meeting was organized by Deuba to discuss on how to proceed ahead with the idea of the elections. The meeting saw the presence of all the major security organs of the state and it was Madhav Nepal who listened patiently to the statements made by the security chiefs who favored holding of the elections provided they were furnished with the needed resources, means and the weaponries.

Sources close to Baluatar say that Madhav Nepal did not interrupt the proceedings of the meeting even when he was expected to follow his party's line of avoiding the elections until the Maoists issue got sorted out.

This means that the UML party has allowed its leader to speak double. The one for public consumption and the other for securing its place intact in the coalition government.

Perhaps it was this UML doublespeak that prompted Deuba to declare the other day that he would and could convince the UML leaders easily.

Madhav's silence at the high-powered meeting does speak that if Deuba declared the elections, the UML, more so Madhav Nepal, would not oppose the elections.

Why Madhav Nepal is talking double then is a logical question indeed.

Looking at Sher Bahadur Deuba's determination to hold elections, the UML led by Madhav Nepal considers that it would be profitable for the party to fight the elections being in the government. This keeps the UML in the safe side to face the eventuality of the elections.

Similarly, to keep the street parties in good humor, the UML is pretending that the party was with them should Deuba differed with the UML on counts of the elections or for that matter house restoration schemes.

The UML scheme of advocating the restoration of parliament is talked to be a ploy to seek greater political benefits for the party. In its bid to seduce the incumbent Premier Sher Bahadur Deuba, the UML has proposed Deuba that he would be allowed to continue as the nation's next prime minister if he secured the restoration of the parliament.

The fact is that the UML knows that the talks of revival of the parliament are a wishful thinking only. The UML also is better informed about the position of the King vis-à-vis house restoration. More so, the UML has listened to the new CJ's expressions with regard to the house revival wherein he has indicated that he would not favor the restoration during his entire tenure.

With all these hints at the background, it is really surprising to learn why the UML is advocating the restoration of the parliament? Is it a newly manufactured policy of the UML to ensure its longevity in the government and assuring the parties in the streets that the UML could surface in the streets should Deuba reject the party's dictates?

The fact is that with all these dual characters, the party of the communists is getting exposed in the eyes of its own voters and cadres.

Maoists expect red corner notice and terrorist tag lifted

Kathmandu: Even if the Maoists declined to respond to the government's offer for talks by January 13, the party of the radical communists still appear not averse to the idea of attending to the talks provided certain conditions were met by the establishment prior to the talks.

The last press statement issued by the Maoists dated January 13, the day government's deadline expired, states that the party was ready for the talks but would wish that the UN or some reliable international agencies mediated the talks. The party also has also said that until the red corner notice and the terrorist tag were not lifted, the party can't think of attending to the talks.

This implies that the party would not oppose coming to the talks if the red corner notices and the terrorist tag were lifted. This further means that they would wish the government taking some concrete positive steps in favor of the rebels prior to inviting them for talks.

This is a positive hint indeed.

Perhaps it is this statement that has prompted the deputy Prime Minister Bharat Mohan Adhikari to talk of government thinking of announcing yet another period for extending invitation to the Maoists for talks.

That the Maoists are willing to resume the talks becomes clear from their statement wherein the party threatens the establishment that if the latter announced the polls, it would meet with severe disturbances.

This means that the Maoists would wish the polls to be conducted only after their issue gets properly sorted out.

The inner message is that they would not mind the polls if appropriate and reliable international agencies mediated the Maoist-government talk much ahead of the elections.

The Maoists press statement has expressed its displeasure over the recent price hike effected by the government on the PoL products and has strongly warned Deuba and minister Pokhrel to scrap the decision and offer tender their respective resignations well within ten days or else be ready to face penal actions.

How Deuba and minister Pokhrel would react to this pressure is now known. However, what is for sure is that the Maoists have this time sided with the poor people and have exhibited their sympathies for those who have been badly affected by the recent price hike.

CAMP officials meet Danish Envoy

Kathmandu: The office bearers of the newly established CAMP, Conflict Afflicted Media Persons-support group, paid a courtesy call on the Danish Charge d' Affaires, Gert Meinecke, at his office last week.

During the meeting with the Danish diplomat, the media men associated with the CAMP dwelt at length on the very objectives and the goals of the forum.

To recall, CAMP is a forum which aims at supporting the media men and their dependent ones affected by the ongoing conflict.

On the occasion the Danish dignitary appreciated the role being played by the Nepalese journalists through this forum.

The CAMP delegation included Kabir Rana, Kishor Shrestha and N.P.Upadhyaya among others.

(See VIEWS for CAMP details-ed).

Shootout at the Indian Embassy

Kathmandu: In a very mysterious incident two Indian security personnel were killed and one more was wounded in what has been described as an incident of ‘accidental firing’ within the Indian embassy premises in Kathmandu last week.

Talking to Nepal news, an embassy official confirmed the incident and said the security personnel belonged to the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) of India and were within the barrack when the incident took place. He said no outsiders were involved in the incident. Embassy officials said an investigation was underway.

Poorest countries must benefit from global trade: EU

Kathmandu: The new European Union (EU) Commission for external trade, Peter Mandelson, has said the poorest countries in the world must benefit from global trade and not lag further and further behind as others race ahead.

Addressing a summit held in Indian last week, Mandelson said, "I want to work for global prosperity and social justice through more open, rules based trade, for the benefit of all."

"We have to realize that trade is a key instrument for development. More significant, if we get it right, than aid or dent relief," said Mandelson. "Trade policy and WTO rules will not be the prerogative of a small club of wealthy nations. That way of doing business no longer reflects economic or political reality," he added. "Europeans are increasingly ready to see India and the other developing countries of the G-20 assume a greater role in international institutions and organisations. But India cannot behave over Doha like a poor developing country," he added.

Maoists torch three Indian vehicles

Kathmandu: A group of armed Maoists torched three Indian vehicles at Arunkhola along the Daunne-Gaidakot section of the Mahendra Highway in Nawalparasi district last week. Nobody was injured in the incident.

According to a police official stationed at the district police office, the Maoists set ablaze two mini trucks and a jeep. The Maoists torched the vehicles for defying the general strike, which they had called in the Daunne-Gaidakot section of the highway in protest of the recent price hike of petroleum products, police added.

Former Chief Justice dies

Kathmandu: Former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court Dhanendra Bahadur Singh passed away at the age of 78 last week.

Singh, who was suffering from brain tumor and died during treatment at the Tribhuvan University Teaching Hospital, Kathmandu.

He was appointed Chief Justice in 2042 B.S and served until 2048 B.S and was chairman of the Raj Parishad from 2051 B.S to 2055. Singh is survived by his wife and two sons.

Maoists abduct and release 15 Indian Gurkha soldiers

Kathmandu: Maoists last week destroyed five trucks of Nepal Telecom transporting wires of the Far-western Regional Directorate, Attariya, in Kailali at Shaule under the Chuha village development committee. Rajendra Shrestha, Acting Regional Director Nepal Telecom, said damage was estimated at 15 million rupees. Maoists released five of six trucks after torching the wires pulled down from the vehicles coming from Sunaili in India. At another incident a group of Maoists abducted 15 persons working in the Indian army along the Mahendra Highway at Motipur Chaurai under the Baliya development committee. Later on the 15 abducted Indian army were released.

Indian paramilitary force builds camps in Nepali land

Kathmandu: Indian paramilitary force Special Security Bureau (SSB) initially deployed along Nepal-Indian border to check the cross border crimes has encroached upon some part of Ilam district adjacent to Indian district of Darjeeling and built its permanent camps at several places reports the Kantipur online.

The KOL reports that the SSB has even built concrete camps at several places in the Pashupati area, in contravention of the accord being practiced by both the Nepali and the Indian high-level officials for regulating and monitoring the border area in the region.

The eyewitnesses said the SSB built the camps by encroaching upon the Nepali lands citing the reasons that the Maoists had earlier used the Indian land to attack the security post in the district.

Chamber of Commerce to protest increase in VAT

Kathmandu: Nepal Chamber of Commerce (NCC) last week announced a protest programme against the government decision to hike the ceiling of the value added tax. NCC’s warning comes a couple of days after the government increased VAT rate by 3.0 percentage points to 13 per cent through the Financial Ordinance to meet the resource gap of about 3.6 billion to foot rising security expenses and to give a 20 per cent raise to government employees.

In its first stage of protest, NCC representatives to the Revenue Advisory Committee will resign and its members will continue their business with 10 per cent VAT, it is said. NCC members have also decided not to get their import consignments released from the customs office. They will stop paying tax to the government and register the regular tax details at 10 per cent.

BOOK OF THE WEEK

Trade Facilitation: Nepal's Priorities
Published by: Institute of Foreign Affairs
Kathmandu, Nepal
www.ifa.org.no
Edited by: Nischal Nath Pandey, Officiating Executive Director

The IFA in collaboration with the SWATEE organized a one day seminar in Kathmandu on "Trade Facilitation: Nepal's Priorities, on July 9th 2004.

This book is the collection of four very insightful papers presented during the seminar including the consequent discussions have also been recorded in this publication.

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