I n d e p t h    A n a l y s i s
Onus again on Monarch

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba will have come to a decision on elections this week. His partner parties in the cabinet have promised him of their respective central committee decisions on this agenda this week. On the streets, Girija Koirala has, only expectedly, declared that his party will not contest elections if unilaterally declared by the government.

In effect, His majesty King Gyanendra's singular effort of the past two years to cobble together a national government composed, in the least, of a majority of the parties in the dissolved parliament to cope with the constitutional crisis appears now to be purposely threatened. With the Girija congress not participating and Deuba's partners vacillating on whether they can cope with the elections, Deuba's election agenda is threatened from within and without at the very outset. To boot, Deuba's own party now appears divided on whether they should attend to the rival congress opinion that parliament be restored. In the UML, this opinion has already assumed a major component of a sizeable section, which threatens to be a majority.

In effect, thus, it gives the UML the opportunity to throw one more bargaining chip for the UML to support the government agenda. The UML's Madhav Nepal has asked Deuba to execute the original agreement forming the coalition, namely, the reinstatement of the local level bodies and the Upper House.

These public discussions only underscore the continued partisan trend at advantage gaining. While it is evident that Deuba must avoid the reinstatement of the dissolved parliament to prevent a slide of his remaining parliamentary support towards the Girija congress who have not been included in the cabinet, Deuba can't allow the reappointment of the UML predominant local level bodies simply because it is actually redundant in the face of the Diaspora from their constituencies because of Maoists persecutions.

It is clear that the political parties each continue to seek partisan advantage at the expense of the system despite the continued encroachment of the Maoists on that account.

What is clear thus is that the use of the Article 127 to bring about the logical need of a united systematic response to the Maoists challenge is gradually exhausting itself. Options thus can't but be sought.

As yet, His Majesty has played with the parliamentary options while the parliamentary parties aware of this have played with the democratic royal intent at the expense of the monarchy. Whether the monarchy can continue to sustain this organized attempt to erode the royal intents is what must be seriously mulled over.

Clearly Deuba's mandate will prove elusive since the Maoists are not going to talk peace with him as long as his parliamentary rivals continue to undercut him. Again Deuba's elections will undercut itself if his competition refuses to participate. The difficulty of conducting the elections is another matter altogether. The revival of parliament has already been demonstrated to have constitutional limits and the politics of such a revival covers up the simple fact that the dissolved parliament had already proven its redundancy regarding the Maoists problem.

In this background, the onus of a productive solution to the national crisis shifts again to the Monarchy. It is clear that the major parliamentary parties remain part of the problem as they have been all along.

King favors elections?
Deuba's poll strategy guided by fear psychosis

Kathmandu: Clearly Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is all set get the elections announced soon.

One can call this as his adventure or even mis-adventure.

In effect it is both.

It is an adventure in the sense that despite the adverse and even chaotic conditions prevailing at the moment in the country, it is Deuba who is prepared to throw the country to the polls.

It is his sheer mis-adventure and a sort of folly that he is prepared to get the dates for the elections declared when he is well aware of the hard reality that a host of political parties, in the streets and in his cabinet, appear reluctant to embrace the polls.

Add to this the Maoists threat loaded statements served to Sher Bahadur Deuba January 13 which stated that the rebels would very much create disasters if the polls were declared. The Maoists' declaration should be taken seriously for their expressions go against the happening of the polls which means that if the polls were declared they would do all possible to make it null and void.

This means, the parties in the streets, a set of political parties housed in the cabinet too appear hesitant in joining the poll fray.

The UML that speaks double more often than not is under hard pressure from its cadres which has suggested its high command even to quit the government and wage a sort of movement to garner support for drafting a new constitution altogether. This means that the UML would think twice before providing its nod in favor of the polls if declared by Deuba.

The student wing of the UML the other day challenged its central leadership stating that "it should not be the dictates of a few landlords seated at the high command of the party to determine as to what the party should do and what not".

This strong statement in a way is directed towards the UML leader, Madhav Nepal, whom the parry cadres allege that he is a man who could yield to any one and could even sacrifice the party's objectives and prime interests if he were allowed to share the booty in the establishment.

Its corollary would be that the UML's lower rung cadres consider Madhav Nepal as the man who has brought about a slide in the popularity and the very prestige of the party in the recent months.

Gone are the hegemonic days of Madhav Nepal, it appears.

The RPP led by Pasupati Rana too is in a fix. Logically, he can't say no to the elections. However, the fact is that the party at the moment is a divided lot and hence any decision to jump to embrace the elections might damage winning prospects.

Talking of the NSP under minister Badri Mandal, what could be better said of this party is that save a few prominent leaders of this party, the rest were less influential in their own constituencies. Add to this the other faction of the NSP which is in the streets too could damage the prospects of the previous NSP if polls are declared.

To add insult to injury, even Deuba's own intimate colleagues in the NC-D party appear more than reluctant in accepting the challenge of the polls, which their own leader is to announce soon.

The party is divided on this count.

The sum total of this scenario is that Deuba can declare the elections but he can't assure even his own men in the party of emerging victorious.

It is this divided attitude that some NC-D men appear more interested in the restoration of the parliament as demanded by Girija Prasad Koirala and his men in the streets.

The parties mostly residing in the Ratnapark Island have more or less hinted that they would boycott the polls. If the street agitators do what they have declared would mean lesser participation in the polls which would allow the agitators to dub the election results as a rigged one.

Now the question arises: whether the country should go to the polls or not? The second question is should the country go to the hustings without taking the parties in the streets and the Maoists into confidence? The third question is whether the King is interested in the polls or not at this critical juncture? And finally what the men belonging to the international communities say of elections in Nepal?

The first question could be a matter of serious debate. But then yet as a democratic country, neither Nepal as a nation-state say no to the elections nor those political parties in the streets.

Elections are a must provided a friendly atmosphere persisted. The second question more or less is related to the security matters. All that the parties in the streets are saying that until and unless security situation comes under control by convincing the Maoists, the elections should be shifted sine die. The parties in the streets have not said that they will reject the elections altogether. They demand security system to improve which is only possible when the Maoists sit in talks with the government. The Maoists have time and again stated that they will not talk with Deuba government.

As regards the King's inner intentions, analysts say that the monarch is bound by his own commitments for a democratic system and more over while appointing Deuba as Prime Minister he is on record to have instructed Deuba to go in for the polls. This means that the King is out and out in favor of the polls.

Presuming that the King favored the polls would give some hidden messages, which appear positive ones. For example, if the King really favored polls means that he is ready to handover the power to an elected parliament, which is what the parties in the streets have, been demanding.

Secondly, this also means that the King is less interested in giving continuity to his present role that more often than not brings him into political controversies here and there. Instead he would prefer a government of the people through elections who could steer the nation much the same way prior to October 4, 2002.

Conversely, had the King nurtured intentions to linger the polls, he could have done so easily. But Deuba's hurry to go in for the polls also indicates that the King will summarily dismiss him if he failed in holding the elections on time. Deuba rush to go to the polls appears more guided by a sense of fear psychosis of being sacked by the King than by bringing in the derailed constitutional processes in its original track.

Analysts say that if the street agitators suspect the very credentials of the monarch that with an election not participated in by major political actors, the King would manage or would prefer to bring in parliamentarians who would toe his line later, the best idea that could be furnished to those who suspect the King's motive would be to accept the challenge of the polls and damage King's inner desires if any.

Deuba knows well the Maoists will every thing to disturb the polls. He also knows that the commander of the street agitation, Koirala, would prefer his ouster prior to going to the polls. He also knows that Madhav Nepal would very much want Deuba being sacked and replace him.

Now talking of the international community whether they prefer elections or not, well what could be said of them is that they being democratic nations would perhaps not reject the idea of going to the polls. Concurrently they would wish the Maoists to be brought to the talks.

Deuba's assertion that he has already read the minds of the international community should be taken in this light. Deuba said that his foreign friends have not objected to his idea of going to the polls.

Should this mean that Deuba enjoys international support in his adventure or mis-adventure?

How Deuba manages the polls will have to be watched.

India's Nepal experts seek a role for Delhi

Kathmandu: New Delhi has once again expressed its desire to have a role in the government-Maoists talks.

As usual, Indian authorities have done so through their trusted and tested men who either served in the ministry at some point of time or who claim to be expert on Nepal affairs.

To recall, former Indian Foreign Secretary, K. Sibbal too had expressed such a similar desire while making a lecture in Paris some five years ago wherein he had asked Nepali authorities to define what role his country would have at time of the negotiation with the Maoists.

It is not surprising therefore to listen to the sure shot formulae for the solution to the Maoists issue coming as it does more often than not from across the border.

S.D.Muni, the self proclaimed Nepal expert who is widely known for providing service to India's foreign ministry and who is concurrently the biggest critic of Nepali monarchy in India, the other day said in Delhi that "Where is the international community? And India, whose role is critical at this time"

In saying so, Dr. Muni would wish India's predominant role in settling the government-Maoists dispute, which is what the Indian authorities seated in the South Block, would want primarily.

Dr. Muni as a matter of courtesy did say that there was the need of the international community to support Nepal at time of crisis. However, that is just a lip-service as it has already become pretty evident that his men in the ministry have hinted Nepal that India would not prefer any third party international mediation including that of the United Nations System.

The fact is that Nepal to day rejects international mediation only because of Indian instructions.

Dr. Muni in the same vein does admit that Nepal's Maoists issue should not be left at the mercy of the Almighty and that sooner it is checked the better for India as well.

Better late than never, Dr. Muni accepts that the Maoists issue now has begun hurting India's security perceptions as well. He, however, says this in a different manner. "Any delayed response from key players would mean a bigger challenge for Nepalis and the international community".

Dr. Muni's reference of international community should be read as India's.

Muni as is expected of him says that Nepal's monarchy have had zero role in Nepal save that of Prithivi Narayan Shah.

His reiteration needed no further explanation as he is considered in Nepal as a qualified Indian with myopic vision.

Then comes former India's Ambassador to Nepal K.V.Rajan who says to bring about an end to Nepal's present crisis all that was needed was more democracy.

However, Ambassador Rajan does not mention his own reluctance in helping Nepal when he was here as Ambassador in curbing the ever-growing Maoists threats to this country. Now that its spillover effect was becoming clear in his country's security perceptions so a panicked Rajan sees the need of what he says "given an opportunity, New Delhi can do much in Nepal".

According to Rajan by implication, New Delhi should act fast in helping Nepal or else India too would have to bear the brunt of the geometrical growth of the Maoists in Nepal. The fact is that Nepal's Maoists insurgency possesses a strong linkage with similar insurgencies in India who are creating havoc in India itself of late. Rajan should have fathomed this eventuality when he was himself posted in Nepal. Better late than never he did realize.

All said and done, if the suggestions have come as a late realization in the Indian diplomatic circle that India should support Nepal then that should be most welcome. Or else making lectures in New Delhi would do little to change the internal dynamics of the Maoists politics in their own country.

Let's hope that Indian support is not forthcoming to Nepal wherein a Nepali would be told to kill the other Nepali.

If that is the real Indian intentions then Nepali analysts say Nepal would do well in rejecting such dangerous support from across the border.

The experts on Nepal made these observations the other day in Delhi during the launching ceremony of a book by Manjushree Thapa.

Dr. Mohsin blows hot again

Kathmandu: Last week talking to BBC Nepali service, the government’s spokesman and Minister for Information and Communications, Dr. Mohammed Mohsin, said this government will have to go if elections are not announced within a week.

He was referring to the mandate given to the P.M Deuba administration by His Majesty the King to hold elections within this year, Dr. Mohsin said if elections could not be announced, the government would have to vacate on moral grounds.

Shailaja withdraws

Biratnagar: The NC women leader Shailja Acharya while talking to some media persons here told that she withdrew her candidacy for the presidency of the NC, last week.

She told the media men that she was withdrawing because the incumbent Girija Prasad Koirala was contesting and she will contest if Koirala changes his mind.

Relief for badis

Kathmandu: Media reports last week indicated that the Government, for the first time, is bringing a relief package for the backward Badi community.

The relief package will be executed under the Ministry of Women, Child and Social Welfare, it is said.

The package consists of interest-free loans, imparted training in skills and employment generating opportunities, free education from one to ten grade, sex and health education to increase awareness and also moves are afoot to settle them permanently.

NRNs propose to set up a 100 million dollar fund

Kathmandu: The recently concluded three-day regional meeting of the NRNs(Non-Resident Nepalis) in Doha proposed to set up a basket fund of USD 100 million to promote Nepali products abroad and increase investment in Nepal.

The meet also discussed a model proposed by a Canada-based Nepali professor, Aditya Jha, to set up the fund. The Fund will have representatives from the HMG/N, Federation of Nepalese Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FNCCI) and Association of NRN and NRN investors as its operators.

Bus crash

Kathmandu: At least 40 people of a marriage party were killed when the bus they were travelling in met with an accident last week.

The bus with 60 passengers, including the groom, was travelling north towards Pyuthan district when the accident occurred on Friday evening last week in Dang district.

High expectation on NHRC

Kathmandu: Amidst allegations of corruptions surrounding the NHRC, the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Louise Arbour, said international community has very high expectation that National Human Rights Commission (NHRC) continues its work as a strong, independent and credible institution in future as in the past.

Addressing a reception last week she said Nepali human rights defenders have been in the frontline in defense of human rights in the country. "I never underestimate the terror they face," she said.

Indian assistance

Kathmandu: The Indian, Nepali Governments and the Salt Trading Corporation Ltd. signed an agreement to control goiter Monday, the Indian Embassy said

Aambassador Shiv Shankar Mukherjee, Finance Secretary Bhanunu Prasad Acharya and Laxmi Das Manandhar, Director, Salt Trading Corporation Ltd. signed on behalf of the Corporation.

The Goiter Control Programme will be implemented by the Salt Trading Corporation Ltd. The total cost of the programme for the calendar year 2005 is Rs 80 million.

The Government of India assistance will be available in the form of subsidies under the heads iodisation, packing, transportation and advocacy. India has already provided assistance of Rs 437 millions to Nepal through STC for the Goiter Control Programme in Nepal from 1973 to 1998.

Bhutanese demonstration

Kathmandu: The US-based Bhutanese refugee community Monday staged a protest in front of the Headquarters of United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees in New York, reports said.

The protest demonstration which was led by Bhutanese refugee leader Tek Nath Rijal, was also participated in by the Nepali community living in the US, and representatives of different human rights organizations.

The demonstrators demanded for the repatriation of all the Bhutanese refugees currently in Nepal to their home country.

CAN Info-Tech 2005 kicks off

Kathmandu: Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba inaugurated CAN Info Tech show-cum conference–2005, the mega event of Information Technology Industries in Nepal, at the Birendra International Convention Center (BICC) Tuesday. 

Inaugurating the event, PM Deuba emphasized on the important role of the private sector for the development of IT in Nepal. Stressing on the importance of IT, Deuba said, "Development of information technology is more significant in a country like Nepal with diverse geography."

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