Wednesday, September 14, 2005

In-depth analysis:
Thapa throws his political cards!

Kathmandu: He has unexpectedly become full of life.

He is considered to be one of the most conspiratorial brain dominating the Nepal's political scene since four decades or so.

He has come out of his snooze, which means that he will once again move back and forth the country's politics his way or at least force, other political parties to listen to his recently forwarded scheme in order to bring the country back to normalcy.

A fascinating figure as he is, Surya Bahadur Thapa-the Chairman of the recently formed Rastriya Jan Shakti Party, has thrown the ball into the courts of the political parties and of the King as well with a hope that both the camps would heed to his propositions to get the country out of the current muddle.

Thapa's conspiratorial intellect even does not spare the Maoists who have recently announced a three-month long ceasefire whose sudden announcement forces this maverick politician to suspect the very timing of the announcement.

"Whatever raison d'être or for that matter ideas would have resulted in this ceasefire announcement made by the Maoists, we at the RJP value this choice in the name of the restoration of peace in a permanent way", says RJP Chairman Thapa. In the same vein Thapa says, " there could have been some reasons and strategies behind the cessation of hostilities' announcement but yet we welcome this decision".

This means that Thapa and his party indicate that the Maoists' ceasefire announcement could have been a strategic move of the party and that the decision does have some unidentified reasons which is why it there.

Talking on the congress' recent removal of the word constitutional monarchy from its statute, Thapa maintains that this decision arrived at by congress party in more ways than one indirectly extends its support to the forces that believe in "radicalism" and this motion would have also its impact on the party's mid-way line kept intact since five decades or so.

"The congress' decision of dumping the mid-line has also contributed to the prevalence of a sort of blankness in the political scene", adds Thapa. Here is Thapa's warning to the congress: "Your decision would not only weaken the forces that believe in the preeminence of the people and constitutional monarchy but also could badly tarnish the party's image and the very identity.

A strong warning indeed.

This means that Thapa is against NC's abandoning of the centrist policy and also laments that such a decision would bring the congress closer to those who believe in practicing extreme politics. Thapa believes that with NC change of mind will have also its full impact on the 1990 constitution, which will ultimately heighten the constitutional crisis.

Dwelling on the UML's recent changes effected in the party regarding the institution of the monarchy, Thapa opines that this UML decision would overwhelmingly make vulnerable the very basics of the 1990 constitution.

The RJP chairman has also no good words for the monarch. In an implied manner he wants to signal the King that the latter's going alone in politics too could not deliver and hence he urges the King to proceed forward seeking the help of the political parties.

Thapa believes that ultimately it should the King and the political parties who should jointly tackle the matters of the country.

If Thapa presumes that the King too has to prove his democratic credentials both in words and deeds, he also criticizes the parties who have yet to come with clear mind on how they view corruption, governance, financial discipline and of terrorism as demanded repeatedly by the King.

It is here that Thapa enjoys the leverage to attack both the major political forces that were at loggerheads since long.

All in all, it appears that Thapa possessed some magic formulae to deal with the deteriorating situation of the country. Thapa's hypothesis, as much as is visible, is that if he were tolerated for a chance to bounce back on power, he could bring the "deflected from their established lines" parties to track and provide a better headship to the ailing nation.

The sagacity is that Thapa nowhere says this directly but everywhere he implies in his statement that it is only him that could save the country from going to the sheer drop that was approaching, as he sees it, fast.

Analysts say that Thapa by hinting the congress that the latter had already drifted from its centrist line and hence his party would be more than willing to fill in the vacuum by toeing the former congress' line! This is perhaps a windfall for a party that apparently has more leaders than cadres.

All put together, should this mean that Thapa is preparing himself for the next prime ministerial post? Undoubtedly, he is a potential candidate who could bring in about a change in the now cool relation in between the Nepali monarch and the Indian establishment. No less important is that analysts believe Thapa a close confidante of the South Block. Analysts prefer to recall how Thapa and the monarch traveled for all along thirty minutes in the same car while the monarch was on a tour to the eastern region recently.

Perhaps here lies Thapa's conspiracy. At least for the time being, all the roads lead to Thapa's private residence in Maligaun.

How Thapa's colleagues now in agitation would react to his statement made at the conclusion of his party's central committee meeting that concluded the other day will have to be watched.

President Koirala's pain is understandable

Kathmandu: The Congress under Girija Prasad Koirala is under tremendous strain in the recent days for a variety of political reasons.

More so the party's paramount leader, Shri Koirala, is feeling the brunt of his party's deleting the provision of the constitutional monarchy from its statute under the supposed instigation of some foreign forces a portion of the blame he should also shoulder concurrently.

Frankly speaking, it was primarily Girija's fault of the highest order that prompted his cadres and second-generation leaders' to cry foul against the monarchy which he initially provoked as a tool to tame the institution of the monarchy.

In effect he did admit later that his outbursts against the monarchy was a sort of threatening to the monarchy to yield to his and the seven party conglomerates' demand which the monarch summarily rejected.

Now that the party has already called quits to its centrist line, it is only but natural that a party that always toed middle path as regards politics in the nation should be equated close to the radical ones. A grand departure from the congress' old past that unfortunately brings the party now closer to the extreme forces that ultimately prefers to devastate the parliamentary forces as it believes in one party-authoritarian rule.

Girija has only repentance left for him. A minor mistake catapulted the entire glorious history of the congress so lovingly nurtured by his own late brother B. P. Koirala and later by the now ailing Krishna Prasad Bhattarai.

The fact is that some second rank congress leaders cashed in upon from Girija's short temper and managed under foreign dictates to prevail on the party's million dollar decisions. It is not for nothing said that some neighboring forces were round-the-clock on duty at time of the NC convention that just concluded embracing almost a Nepal minus the monarchy.

It is no secret that Girija's honesty and simplicity has been best churned by his detractors in the party and without. Some analysts even say that one neighboring country is clandestinely grooming potential alternatives for Girija Prasad Koirala upon completion of the third term of Koirala presidency.

The contention of the alien forces inimical to Nepali monarchy is that Girija baboo is too old and could not be trusted any more as he changes his tones vis-à-vis the monarchy every now and then and that he should be replaced soon by some one who exhibited characters much similar to Mir Jaffors and Quislings.

Analysts confirm that foreign forces have found one or two in the crowd of many in the Congress who would henceforth take care after the larger interests of that particular country.

Girija baboo's pain appears to have doubled when he is being told, as rumors suggest, to go in for nominations as "dictated" by some alien forces. Sources close to the congress say that Koirala is being instructed to do this and to do that which is against Koirala's preferences and more so will.

Analysts presume that some forces would wish their chosen and preferred Mir Jaffors to take control of the party as they believe that Koirala at this fag end of his political career neither has strength nor the courage to fight with the monarchy.

Koirala lately came to know these maneuverings, insiders of the congress whisper.

One congress enthusiast went to the extent to share his experience of what he saw for himself at time of the last NC convention. "I saw one high flying congress leader scolding a foreign national telling him not to interfere in his party's internal matters", is what the congress insider revealed.

This means that President Koirala knows now where he went wrong in his calculations invited trouble for him.

It is also rumored that some two prominent NC leaders who have had a track record of fighting with each other on any possible count inside the party now have surprisingly embrace each other on every count. Insiders of the congress claim that this miracle has been the doings of certain powerful forces who would want to fill the congress central leadership with their own men so that they could voluntarily deliver when needed.

President Koirala is well abreast with these sudden developments and may be he is thinking on how to checkmate those foreign maneuverings so that the party remained well in his grip as usual.

Understandably, different party individuals and foreign centers for allotting lucrative post to their preferred and chosen men are influencing the NC leader Koirala.

However, the fact is that President Koirala has a habit of trusting his own blood relatives than others. It is this habit that is prompting Koirala to nominate his own near and dear ones to the party's meaningful posts so that the party remained in his firm grips

This is being challenged and as a result of which Girija baboo could take bitter decisions that might not be digested well by his blood relations.

The disgruntled lady, Shailaja Acharya, is also being pushed for the post of vice president of the party. Interestingly, some junior Koiralas freshly elected in the party posts have been found lobbying for Ms. Acharya. A classic case of "blood is thicker than water".

The contention is that by elevating the ranks of the rebellion Ms. Acharya, the party could regain its "centrist" line as she is the one who says that congress by neglecting the monarchy has brought itself much closer to the radical ones.

Thus Koirala would want his men to rule the roost. Others would want lucrative post considering their past contributions made to the party. This apart, some "interested quarters" in the neighborhood would certainly want their men elevated to high flying positions.

All these put together makes clear that Koirala is really in trouble.

UML leader kills several birds with one stone

Kathmandu: He blows hot and cold concurrently.

He provides the impression that he was with the Maoists and with the seven parties coalition against what he calls "regression" literally meaning a movement against the King.

The fact is that he is neither with the rebels nor with the parties wherein he is associated with in the fight against regression.

In effect, he still has olive branch for the King. His fresh utterances do tell that Comrade Madhav Nepal, the UML strongman, would love to support the King provided the latter agreed to his so far hidden proposals.

The fact is that this communist shrewd leader made such an observation Monday in Tulsipur, Dang, which forces analysts to understand his inner heart that is still far from the radical communists now in the far flung jungles.

In an implied manner Madhav Nepal has made known all and sundry and more so to the King that he was not "with the Maoists" suggesting that he could be "seduced" by any one, preferably by the King-by implication.

This is good news for the Nepali monarch as he has been expectedly considering that his detractors in the Nepali political paraphernalia all have gone too closer to the Maoists leaving him alone in his fight against terrorism.

However, this is not the case. The hope is not yet lost.

Madhav Nepal not only talked of his party's possible "alliance" with the men in the jungles but on behalf of the entire seven party coalition he dared to declare that "the seven party alliance would not have any coalition with the armed Maoists".

It would be a matter of intense debate for his other partners in the coalition on whether his declarations were admissible to them all or that demanded a correction later.

But then yet, in order to provide the Maoists and his coalition partners' space to breath, Madhav Nepal further said that "no coalition was possible with the Maoists as long as they carried guns".

This means automatically that Madhav Nepal intends not to go in for a coalition with the Maoists as against his party's fight against what he calls, "autocratic monarchy" and that he will in all certainty not go for he knows that the conditions that he has put forth for the perusal of the Maoists were almost bringing "star or a moon" from the heaven.

Madhav Nepal knows that the Maoists would never lay down their arms. He also knows that the strength of the rebel lay in their having armed guns, which the other camp would perhaps never abandon unless guaranteed by some "internationally recognized" mediators. Mr. Nepal also knows that if the Maoists joined the mainstream politics, the biggest harm politically- vote wise- would have to be borne by the UML, his own party. Certainly, in the absence of real communist ideological credentials, a more sharp and revolutionary party both in words and deeds would cut the UML votes at time of the hustings.

In sending crude signals to the Maoists, Madhav Nepal concurrently has sent positive signals to the King that at least he and his party's views vis-à-vis "terrorism" in the country were clear and should now convince the King of the UML's present and fresh stance on terrorism.

The UML in doing so has indirectly tried to impress upon the King that they too toes the same line as the King did as regards the matters related to terrorism. Perhaps this should satisfy the King and make him to think that at least the UML possessed the same line as he did on terrorism.

Clearly, Madhav Nepal with one stone has killed several birds.

How the King and the Maoists react to Madhav Nepal's latest announcement will have its impact on the impending moves of both: the King's and those of the seven party coalition.

Undoubtedly, the rebels must not have taken Mr. Nepal's statement in an "encouraging" manner.

What is more than interesting is that Madhav's statement deriding at the Maoists have come at a time when Surya Bahadur Thapa, yet another shrewd politician, has forwarded some proposals which he claims would do away with the present ailments of the country.

Madhav Nepal by and by has also apparently hinted that he too was competent enough to tackle the domestic problems much the same way as Mr. Thapa claimed Monday evening.

Is it a mere conjecture or a political change of the highest order is in the making?

Intellectual capability makes the difference in politics

Kathmandu: When brains differ, ideas differ. When heads differ, their utterances differ dramatically.

But then yet a fairly educated political personality would in all likelihood make statements that befit his or her personality and stature. Conversely, a less educated political creature would talk that might be taken as a joke by the listeners and the party members alike.

Monday evening, the Kathmanduites were fortunate enough to watch television programs wherein two diametrically opposing political personalities were presented for their interpretations of the current developments in the country more so after the sudden announcement of the ceasefire by the rebels.

The first political man came from the congress. Dr. ram Saran Mahat is a well known economist and a fairly recognized leader of the congress.

This political personality talking on the ceasefire arrangement put forth by the Maoists lauded the rebel's initiative and urged all to "exploit" the opportunity.

As an educated personality would push his views, Dr. Mahat opined that "why not call it a daring move".

He then basing his arguments on intellectualism said that let us all (meaning all constitutional forces plus the King and even the Maoists) "converge at one point" and make it a platform to sort out the present day crisis plaguing the country.

Dr. Mahat opines that we all have to compromise in the larger interest of the country. This explains his intellectual capabilities and urge for an immediate solution to the country's problems.

Analysts give importance to Dr. Mahat's valuable suggestions recalling that if the Israelis and the Palestinians could patch up their differences for peace then what is the harm if all the constitutional forces united in the name of the nation which well could become the meeting point.

On the other hand, analysts listened to the funny remarks made by yet another prominent Communist leader, Bam Dev Gautam who made a joke of his own party when he began talking jocular things.

For example, Mr. Gautam had to say that the foreigners who possessed allergy for the communists in the past were found fairly impressed by observing the democratic credentials of the communist party.

Mr. Gautam perhaps fails to understand that the foreigners whom he considers that they became happy by watching their democratic credentials were in effect amused to see the UML's capitalistic testimonials and overtures. The fact is that many in Nepal and abroad have begun dubbing the UML as a party heavily dominated by "rich and affluent" communists who still wear the tag of communists which they have abandoned long time ago.

"Looking at our adherence to norms and values of democracy, foreigners become happy", is what Gautam declared.

But the fact is different. For example, not so many people perhaps recall that when the former United States Ambassador Michael Malinowski visited the UML office in Balkhu, the managers manning the Balkhu fort very cleverly put all the photographs of Lenin, Stalin and that of Mao in a dark room until the American envoy left the fort. This they did to impress the American envoy so that the US could be compelled to consider the UML in a different fashion.

When the envoy left the compound, all the photographs of the communist veterans were again hung on the same wall from where those were shifted to the dark room.

This very much speaks of communists' democratic credentials indeed. Thanks that Mr. Gautam did not touch upon this daring and challenging job his party did to impress upon the American envoy.

All in all, analysts suggest Mr. Gautam to act as a responsible leader, which in effect he is. Such flimsy remarks only would tarnish whatever image is left for the party in the Nepali society. Analysts would suggest Gautam to go in for a suitable change in the name of the party that will make the foreigners happy as claimed by him in a permanent way.

Nevertheless, analysts at this paper possess immense honor for Mr. Gautam.

K. B. Amatya no more!

Kathmandu: One of Nepal's foremost businessman and well-known industrialist, Shri Krishna Bahadur Amatya is no more.

He has already left for his heavenly abode last Friday.

Born in 1979 B.S, late Amatya engaged himself in the business sector from his very early childhood whose contributions to the expansion of the national economy would be ever remembered by the following generations.

Late Amatya overwhelmingly dominated the country monetary scene for well over five decades much ahead of the Nepal Rastra Bank's birth.

A thoroughly gentleman as he was, late Amatya is survived by four sons namely, Piyush Amatya, Daman Amatya, Hirendra Amatya and Binod Amatya. All the junior Amatyas are considered to be established businessmen and industrialists as well.

The Telegraph condoles the sad and sudden demise of late Amatya and prays Almighty to provide the members of the bereaved family to grant the required courage to bear this Himalayan loss.

May the departed soul rest in eternal peace.

ENBREF:

RNA to recruit 7000 soldiers

Kathmandu: The Royal Nepalese Army forwarding a proposal to the Ministry of Defense, demanded for recruiting 7,000 more soldiers to form the Army 's Corps in the eastern and western regions.

News reports claimed that the RNA’s proposal is currently being reviewed by the Ministry of Finance. Initially at time of the defense budget finalization some months back, recruitment of 13,000 more soldiers was planned, but as the budget crunch the Ministry of Defense could not get the expected budget which was to the tune of 18 billion Nepali rupees (257 million US dollars). The revision has brought the total figure for recruitment from 13 to 7 thousand only.

Stunning news for Indian establishment indeed which wants Nepal be run without having any army. Unfortunately, some Nepali leaders too toe the same Indian line. Funny idea indeed.

US army pacific commander arrives

Kathmandu: The commander of the US Army, Pacific Zone, Lt. General John Brown arrived in Nepal to assess the situation in the country and discuss matters relating to defence with the Royal Nepalese Army.

It is learnt that during his two-day visit, Brown will meet top officials of the RNA and the government as well as call at the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. Not a good news for some in the neighborhood!

India behind the republican rhetoric

Katmandu: A Member of Raj Parishad standing committee alleged India was behind the anti-monarchy stance of major political parties.

Addressing an interaction organized by Reporters’ Club of Nepal in Kathmandu, Yagya Prasad Acharya, claimed that recent decision by Nepali Congress to delete the reference of ‘constitutional monarchy’ from its party statute and the decision of the CPN (UML) to campaign for ‘democratic republic’ was taken at the behest of India. (Nepal news). But then wasn’t' this explanation of Acharya a matter to have been "handled with care"? Well ! Well! Well!

FM accuses external interference for past failed talks

Kathmandu: The Minister for Foreign Affairs Ramesh Nath Pandey before his departure to attend the 60th UN General Assembly while talking to the press urged the Maoists to be more positive and responsible on the prestige of the country.

Adding further he said, the announcement of the cease-fire by the Maoists, who say that they would stop violence and conflict should be welcomed. He said all problems of the country would be resolved if their solutions are sought on the basis of nationalism. But Pandey said when the talk with the Maoists had been progressing on the basis of nationalism, elements both within and without, who wanted this country to remain entrapped in conflict and discord, suddenly interceded and forced the rebels back to the jungle.

Pandey commenting on external interference said we want them to involve in positive things and not in our internal affairs. “The problem of Nepal is concerned to Nepalese alone, and we are fully capable of solving them,” he said.

Ceremony Remembers 9/11 and Victims of Terrorism

Kathmandu: On the fourth anniversary of the September 11 attacks in the United States, American Ambassador James F. Moriarty laid a wreath honoring victims of terrorism at the 9/11 Pharping Peace Grove in Sathikel (see photo attached).

 “When we lose our loved ones, we suffer as individuals. When we lose loved ones to the brutality of others, our entire society suffers,” Ambassador Moriarty said during the ceremony. “Remembering the watershed events of 9/11 and all victims of terrorism remind us that life is precious, that unity is vital, that those who have hope -- no matter how much in sorrow -- will triumph over those who would crush freedom.”

 To recall, the Peace Grove was created in 2002 on land provided by His Majesty’s Government. That year members of the diplomatic and Nepali communities planted 100 trees to honor the thousands of people from more than 100 countries murdered on 9/11. Last year 12 more trees were planted in memory of the 12 Nepalis killed in Iraq in August 2004.

 After the memorial ceremony, the Ambassador and his wife Lauren cut a ribbon to formally open a new building near the Peace Grove belonging to the Sathikel Women’s Group. The group maintains the grove.

EU statement on ceasefire announcement

Kathmandu: The full text of the EU statement is as follows: "The EU welcomes the declaration by the CPN-M of a unilateral ceasefire. The EU urges the CPN-M take concrete steps towards a permanent end to the use of violence for political ends. The EU condemns such violence by the Maoists, which has caused considerable suffering and hardship to the Nepalese people. All political forces now need to work strenuously for a democratically based peace process leading to a durable negotiated solution, involving a national consensus and reintegration of the CPN-M into a multi-party democracy".

The statement continues and says that "The EU therefore urges the CPN-M to implement their latest undertakings in good faith, and the government to respond positively and concretely, with a view to building the necessary confidence required for a political solution to the conflict. The EU continues to believe that such a solution will require the assistance of an independent and credible external partner and the active support of the international community. In the wider context, the EU stands ready to consider positively requests for whatever types of assistance the Nepalese political forces agree are appropriate".

The Acceding Countries Bulgaria and Romania, the Candidate Countries Turkey and Croatia, the Countries of the Stabilisation and Association Process and potential candidates Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Serbia and Montenegro, EFTA countries Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, members of the European Economic Area, as well as Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova align themselves with this declaration adds the EU statement.

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